Electoral Predictions …

According to FiveThirtyEight, Obama now has a 90% chance of winning the election.

My friend Jeff (who posts some very interesting and educational political commentary on his blog) turned me on to this site, which tracks who's currently ahead in the race for president.

It's called FiveThirtyEight.

From the site's FAQ:

Who are you? My name is Nate Silver and I live in Chicago. For additional background, please see here or here. The other contributor to this website, Sean Quinn, lives in California.

What is the significance of the number 538? 538 is the number of electors in the electoral college.

What is the mission of this website? Most broadly, to accumulate and analyze polling and political data in way that is informed, accurate and attractive. Most narrowly, to give you the best possible objective assessment of the likely outcome of upcoming elections.

How is this site different from other compilations of polls like Real Clear Politics? There are several principal ways that the FiveThirtyEight methodology differs from other poll compilations:

Firstly, we assign each poll a weighting based on that pollster's historical track record, the poll's sample size, and the recentness of the poll. More reliable polls are weighted more heavily in our averages.

Secondly, we include a regression estimate based on the demographics in each state among our 'polls', which helps to account for outlier polls and to keep the polling in its proper context.

Thirdly, we use an inferential process to compute a rolling trendline that allows us to adjust results in states that have not been polled recently and make them ‘current’.

Fourthly, we simulate the election 10,000 times for each site update in order to provide a probabilistic assessment of electoral outcomes based on a historical analysis of polling data since 1952. The simulation further accounts for the fact that similar states are likely to move together, e.g. future polling movement in states like Michigan and Ohio, or North and South Carolina, is likely to be in the same direction.


~ by angelmccoy on October 11, 2008.

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